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Showing posts from January, 2023

Kurzgesagt – Black Hole Star Summary

 Black hole stars were potentially the largest stars that ever existed. They had up to 10 million solar masses and were 800,000 times larger than the sun. They were only possible in the early universe when the universe was denser and matter was concentrated in dark matter halos. The massive gravitational pull of the dark matter halos caused clouds of hydrogen to form, leading to the creation of extremely massive stars. In some cases, the star grew so massive that its core was crushed into a black hole. A tremendous explosion resulted, but the star still survived and had a black hole at its center. The black hole kept the angular momentum of the star and matter was drawn into an accretion disk where gas orbited the black hole at nearly the speed of light. Friction between particles in the accretion disk caused it to heat up to millions of degrees.

Peter Zeihan on Canada and Changes in Globalization

 In the conversation with Peter Zeihan, the author of the New York Times bestselling book "The End of the World is Just the Beginning," they discussed several topics related to the collapse of globalization, and how it affects different countries, especially Canada. Zeihan discussed how the net worth of Americans by age bracket influences the global economy. He stated that the real magic happens when one turns 50 years old as their single biggest expense (their children) leave home and the money saved from that goes towards paying down their home, which is typically the second largest expense. By age 55, on average, the home is paid off, and the decade from 55 to 64 is the richest one in a person's life, as they have released thinking about retirement and have more capital to invest. He pointed out that this decade of wealth accumulation is 70% of the global private capital and drives the global economy. When people retire at 65, they tend to liquidate most of their holdi...

Peter Zeihan ECC Presentation 2019 Summary

 The speaker, Peter Zeihan, is a geopolitical strategist and the founder of his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics. He is known for his expertise in global energy, demographics, and security, and provides analytical products to a select group of clients in various sectors including energy, finance, agriculture, and the military. In his recent book, "The Absent Superpower", Zeihan explores the impact of the shale oil revolution on the United States' position in the world. He argues that the US will soon be energy independent and will have less need and desire to engage with the rest of the world. He also highlights that the current global order was designed to fight a war and the US never invested its economy into it, making it the least involved economy in the world as a percent of GDP. Zeihan believes that the global order, which was held together by the US, is now giving way and the US can have a regional order without needing a global one. He also mentions that the US los...

Tech, Capital and Workforce

 Peter Zeihan discusses how cheap capital and a booming stock market has led to a lot of money chasing risky projects in the tech space, specifically Silicon Valley. He notes that companies like Google, Amazon and Tesla have been able to acquire a large workforce due to the cheap cost of capital and the availability of tech-savvy millennials. However, as the cost of capital becomes more expensive, these companies are now shedding jobs, which is bad for Silicon Valley and the value proposition it provides. On the other hand, the availability of a large and experienced tech workforce, as a result of layoffs, presents an opportunity for small and medium companies to hire and implement technology advancements at a cheaper cost. Additionally, the Small Business Administration provides below market capital costs for smaller companies which could lead to an explosion of economic activity and hiring-based economic activity for smaller companies.

Biden's Pro-American Stimulus

 The Biden Administration's green pro-American manufacturing programs have rubbed Europeans the wrong way as they see it as a violation of free trade rules. The program is designed to restore manufacturing to North America and is for American workers and capital only, causing Europeans to threaten WTO action. The Biden Administration sees this as a political project to gain support from organized labor and is unlikely to back down. The globalized order created after WWII, which allowed the US to write security policies in exchange for guaranteed commerce, no longer exists. Europeans have been benefiting from this deal for 75 years and are now having to deal with a more level playing field. Biden's stance is that Europe can "deal with it." The natural gas flows to Europe have been affected by the Ukraine war and are likely to collapse completely, making it difficult for European industrial sectors to be viable. Europe is asking for America to subsidize its workers, but...

Russian Oil Price Cap

The Europeans have put in place an oil export ban on Russia, with a price cap currently set at 60 dollars. The enforcement mechanism is that any vessel carrying crude above that price point will not be able to access European financial or physical services, including port access and insurance policies. This is unprecedented and it is not yet clear how it will play out. One important factor to keep in mind is that not all crude oil is the same and even within Russia, there are multiple crude grades. The most important one is called "Euros crude," which comes from Northern or Western Siberian projects and Southern Russia, and is exported to Europe via pipelines through Ukraine or Belarus. If this cap goes wrong and the Russians decide not to produce at a price they cannot control, pressure could build up in the pipes, causing damage to the permafrost and potentially shutting off the flow of oil. The Turks, who are one of the world's largest importers of Euros crude, have de...

COVID: China's Problem Child

 In the video "COVID: China's Problem Child," Peter Zeihan is discussing the current situation with COVID-19 in China. He explains that due to protests in late November and early December, the Chinese government loosened their regulations on social control related to COVID-19, leading to a fast outbreak. The use of social monitoring for COVID has been discontinued and people with mild symptoms are now allowed to recover at home instead of being sent to quarantine clinics. This has resulted in a lack of data about the outbreak, as testing facilities are closed and there are shortages of common pharmacy items and drugs used to treat flu-like symptoms. The Chinese health system is not equipped to handle the anticipated surge in cases and the current outbreak is similar to the US' Omicron outbreak in 2022. The US lost over a million citizens over the three years of the epidemic, and it's expected that the situation in China could result in millions of deaths due to th...

Germany Approves Leopard Tanks

The video is discussing Germany's recent decision to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which is a significant development as the export of such tanks is typically only approved by Germany in specific circumstances. The video mentions that the Germans have been hesitant to take a leadership role in military affairs, and suggests that the compromise reached between the German and American governments is a smart move. The video also mentions that the Abrams tanks, which are the primary system used by the United States, are considered to be the pinnacle of armored equipment development and are more advanced than the Leopard tanks. However, the video notes that providing the Abrams tanks to Ukraine would take a significant amount of time and resources as the necessary logistical infrastructure does not yet exist in Europe. 

Ukrainian Drone Strikes War

 On December 4th, Ukraine used long-range drones to strike a military airfield deep inside Russia, several hundred kilometers from the border. Ukraine has a history of aerospace design and development, and it is likely that they will continue to develop and use drones in the ongoing war with Russia. The initial indicators suggest that the payload was in excess of 150 pounds and if Ukraine can continue to build and use these drones, they can cause real damage to Russia's military assets and infrastructure. The goal of Ukraine is not just to degrade Russia's military capacity, but also to target refineries and pipeline nexus points to degrade Russia's economic capacity to fight the war. One key facility is the city of Samara, which is a pipeline nexus and refining center for much of Russia's oil and gas from South Central Siberia and Bashqiristan. If Ukraine can shut down Samara, it would severely limit Russia's ability to be flexible with their energy supplies, inclu...